The big question with Nintendo now is how they’ll handle Switch 2’s release. While some are speculating and reading the supposed leaks about the hardware, all that’s more or less secondary for now. What the big question holds is all about the games. Nintendo had to save face and their market after the massive failure that was the Wii U, and hitting both the home and handheld console markets in one swing was a hit. Games followed after, and the Switch has been a rather popular machine across the board. This is why Nintendo is afraid to move to the Switch 2.
Nintendo has a weird thing where they falter about every second console they put out when it comes to games. Transitioning from a generation to another has always been difficult for them, and more often than not it has been the competition that has forced their hand. In the same breath we should remember that there really is no end-date to a console; the provider can support it as long as they want to keep making games for it. In an age where backward compatibility seems to be on everyone’s lips, everybody seems to miss how there’s no reason to keep supporting an old system if it still has an active market. South America’s love with the Sega Master System is a great example of this.
Backwards compatibility is probably a must for Switch 2 though, and an easy way to move from the older system to the new one. We have precedents for this, with the Game Boy Advance supporting the Game Boy library and the DS supporting the Advance library in turn all the while taking extra advantage out of it. 3DS supported the DS library in turn, but these are just extra points in the pot. Switch 2 must have appealing games to justify buying the system. Switch owners who already can play their games won’t be shaken by the new system’s better hardware alone. Nintendo has to deliver a handful of near masterpieces in order to ensure moving onwards with the systems is a good idea.
I’d argue that outside the NES, which was a generational transition from Nintendo’s Pong-clones, the only really good start they’ve seen have been the Game Boy and the Wii. Super Mario World may be loved, but wasn’t a system seller. It was arguably too similar to Super Mario Bros. 3. The Nintendo 64 bombed. 3D Mario, as revolutionary as the media likes to cite it, wasn’t exactly wholly embraced. PlayStation was the 3D platform after all. GameCube made a lot of corrections, but suffered a similar end result as the N64. No Mario game at the start is like having no Sonic game on your console’s launch. The DS tried to be a portable N64 and had a slow start, until Nintendo laxed the necessity to use the touch screen, after which it effectively became a portable Super NES. The Wii had the opposite problem. Big damn start with games people wanted, then a few years later in Nintendo just dropped it. Wii U bombed every which way, something everyone hopes they learned something from. Switch 2 should have a clear, separate name and design, not be confused as an addition to the Switch, like what happened with the Wii and Wii U.
All this is relevant for the Switch 2. Three things can happen; good start, sad end. Sad start, pretty good end. Or the worst, it’ll become Wii U 2.
The history of Nintendo’s consoles hasn’t been linear though. They’ve always had a step on the way, which is the handheld market. As the Switch is both a dedicated home and a handheld console, they’re on empty space now with no backup to rely on. This will put a lot more emphasize on the starting lineup, which most likely will have a Mario game on it. The Switch had the benefit of seeing Wii U titles being ported to the Switch, making the Wii U obsolete in every sense, but Nintendo doesn’t have that leverage here either. If the system is backwards compatible, there’s very little reason to port any game to the new system.
However, Nintendo also has to temper the amount of games for the Switch 2, at least on launch. Carefully picking the best of the bunch and presenting them first would sidestep the issue of current generation of gaming, where the overall quality of titles is on the low side. The very reason you see so many remakes is that even a seven years old title is better than what’s currently offered on the shelves. People yearn for older games because of their quality. Companies afford to sell them at their current higher price points because of the demand, and customers deeming them to be worth more over modern titles. The industry is playing it safe, and it has become very dull because of it.
If we’re completely honest, having a Pokémon at the starting line-up would be decent business decision just to get the whole thing going. Nintendo still has strong IPs they own, and that’s gonna make or break the system. Though that’s a double-edged sword, as these games need to excel. Not every game can be a diamond, chances are most of them will be rough games. Not because of the hardware or the like, but Nintendo has a history of forcing themselves on the player rather than allowing other developers to explore different ways to play games, or letting the consumers play the games the way they want. The high emphasize on the DS’ touch screen early on locked tons of games into a certain paradigm that was a disservice, as mentioned.
Online is a big mystery to me though. Switch Online ties all the retro titles to your subscription. If Nintendo would apply to this to the Switch 2 games, that might kill the console in its crib. Imagine purchasing a game, then needing to purchase Switch 2 online subscription to play that game at all. I don’t think this is going to happen, but the current Switch Online’s retro library is a precedent.
If we take the rumours as valid to some extent, Switch 2 will be a conservative system. Something like a Super Nintendo to the NES. Hardware rarely makes or breaks the system, but at least Nintendo and other developers will have a comfortable time making their games. HDR and HD haven’t really done anything to make games better, just more expensive to produce. Everything’s unoptimized and uncompressed nowadays, nobody seems to play it dangerously and innovate on play. Developers are afraid of consumers missing content, so they’ll put as much as they can out in the open without any play needed for them. Handholding has went from invisible element to in-your-face design so nobody could ever miss a turn on a road or miss how you could climb over a fence. Exploratory element of just playing and seeing what’s out there is vanishing.
With the economy continuing spiralling down slowly but surely, Switch 2 has to justify itself in terms of new games. The system has to be presented with new games that are bold and innovate somehow. These games need to make older games obsolete. Of course, these titles need to be system exclusive.
The Switch 2 has to be neutral when it comes to how it can be played, just like its predecessor. There’s no time to waddle being a DS at start, or Wii U at all. It can’t afford to be too expensive either, and base itself on mature technology in order to keep general costs down.
The biggest threat to Switch 2 is Nintendo itself. They have no competition on the handheld market at all. There’s no Game Gear or PSP to challenge them. Microsoft has effectively gone third party with Xbox brand, which fulfils their steps as Sega’s sequel. I honestly don’t know what’s Sony’s current plan is with the censorships and Helldivers II fiasco going on, but they still seem keen to let exclusive games to go onto Steam. Sony’s synergy between their Hollywood and gaming sections hasn’t really served either.
What about Nintendo still wanting a walled garden, a closed system? The media really likes to sound this bell, telling the readers that the time of exclusive consoles are over. Microsoft and Sony have failed as first party developers in the console market, as the reason for console is to offer a platform for the provider’s games. The games validate the existence of the console. Nintendo is both hardware and software developer, that is their business. This offers simplicity to the consumers, who simply want to play games without needing anything extra. The PlayStation and Xbox systems aren’t in a direct competition anymore. Apple is like Nintendo. They are a combined hardware and software developer. If their OS, or the ecosystem in general, was freely ported to generic PCs and mobile phones, it’d destroy their business model completely. This applies to any corporation that produces their own software and hardware, including companies like John Deere, who manufacture their own tractors and forestry machinery alongside the software that goes with them.
Just because the Switch 2 is coming out, it won’t stop sales for the Switch. It may end up topping the PlayStation 2 in sales in the end, but that’s still a tall order. God help Nintendo if it does, because that’s when shit hits the fan. Then Nintendo will have a legacy they can’t live up to in their current state.